全球变化对未来入侵风险的不同影响 Agama picticauda在被入侵地区之间:同样的问题,不同的解决方案
Nicolas Dubos1, Steven Calesse2, Kathleen C Webster3
1Université de Rennes, CNRS, ECOBIO (Ecosystèmes, Biodiversité, Evolution), 35000, Rennes, France.
The Science of the total environment
|November 26, 2025
概括
生态利基建模预测入侵物种的蔓延,彼得斯岩 Agama (Agama picticauda) 入侵风险在人口密的地区增加,在佛罗里达州减少. 建议进行监督和监管.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 侵入性物种 生物学 生物学
- 保护生物学 保护生物学
背景情况:
- 预测生物入侵是复杂的,因为多方面的和空间变化的影响因素.
- 生态利基建模 (ENM) 为预测外来入侵物种 (IAS) 分布和通知管理提供了一个强大的框架.
- 佩特斯岩 Agama (Agama picticauda) 是一个全球传播的入侵物种,对特有生物多样性造成关注.
研究的目的:
- 通过使用ENM预测 Agama picticauda的入侵风险.
- 评估气候,人类活动和森林覆盖面对入侵的影响.
- 到2070年,根据不同的气候变化和社会经济情景 (SSP2和SSP5) 预测未来的入侵风险.
主要方法:
- 利用了生态利基建模 (ENM) 与来自本地和非本地范围的经过验证的发生数据.
- 将气候,人为活动和森林覆盖面的变量纳入模型.
- 采用了ENM的最新方法建议,并使用SSP2和SSP5场景预测了未来的分布.
主要成果:
- 预计入侵风险在区域上有所不同,在人口密的地区和岛屿上增加,但在佛罗里达州下降.
- 具体建议包括加强对科摩罗群岛和马斯卡伦群岛的货物运输监督.
- 建议在佛罗里达州加强物贸易法规和公众宣传活动,并促进树木覆盖,以本地减轻企业的建立.
结论:
- 气候变化,土地利用和人类活动的相互作用是复杂的,在不同地区不同影响入侵动态.
- 针对性的监管和监管措施对于控制 Agama picticauda 的传播至关重要.
- 息地管理,例如促进树木覆盖,可以提供针对入侵物种的局部控制策略.
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