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雪崩对21世纪冰川质量平衡的贡献
Marin Kneib1,2,3,4, Fabien Maussion5,6, Fanny Brun7
1Laboratory of Hydraulics, Hydrology and Glaciology (VAW), ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland. kneibm@ethz.ch.
雪崩在全球范围内对冰川积雪作出了重大贡献,影响了冰川的演变和生存,特别是对较小的冰川. 预计这种雪崩影响将会增加,需要更好的监测和模型集成.
科学领域:
- 冰川学的冰川学
- 雪崩科学 雪崩科学 雪崩科学
- 气候变化的影响 气候变化的影响
背景情况:
- 冰川对周围地形影响的积雪模式很敏感.
- 在全球范围内,雪崩对冰川质量平衡的贡献得到了很差的量化.
- 雪崩对冰川演变的影响,特别是在气候变化下,仍然不清楚.
研究的目的:
- 量化雪崩对冰川积雪和去除雪的全球贡献.
- 评估雪崩如何影响全球冰川的21世纪演变.
- 调查雪崩对冰川质量平衡和未来预测的影响.
主要方法:
- 复杂的雪崩模型与冰川演变模型的结合.
- 全球范围模拟雪崩对所有冰川的影响.
- 对冰川质量平衡的分析以及在不同的排放场景下预测的变化.
主要成果:
- 在全球范围内,雪崩导致冰川积雪量净增加2% (增加3%,减少1%).
- 地区存在差异,新西兰冰川从雪崩中获得高达15%的净积累.
- 雪崩延长了小冰川的持续时间,并增加了高海拔积聚区对变暖的敏感性.
结论:
- 雪崩在冰川质量平衡和生存中起着至关重要的作用,特别是对于小冰川来说.
- 雪崩对冰川的影响预计将在未来增加.
- 改善冰川模型中雪崩过程的监测和表示对于准确的气候变化影响评估至关重要.
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