由太阳和海洋变化调节的几十年间的地震周期性从中国历史文件中揭示出来
Keyan Fang1, Zheng Zhao2, Hao Wu2,3
1Key Laboratory of Humid Subtropical Eco-geographical Process (Ministry of Education), College of Geographical Sciences, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou, 350007, China. kujanfang@gmail.com.
Scientific reports
|November 26, 2025
概括
通过了解地震活动周期,可以改善长期地震预测. 这项研究揭示了与太阳活动和气候变化相关的~10年和~50年的地震周期.
科学领域:
- 地质物理学和气候科学 气候科学
- 古代地震学 (paleoseismology) 是一种古地震学.
- 太阳地球物理 太阳地球物理
背景情况:
- 准确的长期地震预测至关重要,但由于短时间的仪器记录而受到限制.
- 历史地震目录为地震活动提供了扩展的时间洞察力.
- 了解十年间的地震周期是改善地震风险评估的关键.
研究的目的:
- 分析千年历史的地震数据,以测定几十年间的地震周期.
- 调查地震活动和外部强迫因素之间的潜在相关性.
- 建立一个框架,以确定周期为基础,评估长期地震风险.
主要方法:
- 中国历史地震目录的高分辨率光谱分析 (延伸到公元前1831年).
- 地震周期和太阳活动 (太阳黑子,太阳辐射) 之间的相关性分析.
- 分析与气候变化指标的关系,如海平面和海面温度 (SST).
主要成果:
- 在地震频率中识别强大的~10年和~50年周期.
- 大约10年的周期性显示了与太阳 (太阳黑子) 活动的滞后相关性.
- 大约50年的周期性与太阳辐射,海平面和热带SSTs的多十年变化一致.
结论:
- 太阳辐射可能会调节热带太平洋气候模式 (例如,ENSO),影响地震周期性.
- 在太阳强迫,气候变化和十年间的地震模式之间存在潜在的合.
- 这些发现为评估长期地震风险提供了一种新的方法,通过整合太阳能和气候影响来评估长期地震风险.
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