两个同源类的温度驱动密度梯度揭示了在范围边缘的气候变化对应的对比反应
Sujay Singh1, Daniel Thornton2, Lindsay Welfelt3
1Washington State University, PO Box 642812, Pullman, WA, 99164, USA. sujay.singh@wsu.edu.
Scientific reports
|November 26, 2025
概括
气候变化影响加拿大和在它们的范围边缘. 气温上升有利于鱼,导致鱼数量下降,并在变暖的环境中潜在地流离失所.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 气候变化生物学 气候变化生物学
- 哺乳动物学 哺乳动物学
背景情况:
- 气候变化推动了物种范围的变化,改变了在范围边缘的生物相互作用.
- 对于分布范围外围的物种,生态数据有限,特别是关于种群动态和物种间相互作用的数据.
- 了解这些动态对于预测生物多样性对气候变化的反应至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 研究气候梯度如何影响加拿大 (Lynx canadensis) 和 (Lynx rufus) 在它们共同的范围边缘的密度,丰富性和空间重叠.
- 在气候变化场景下,对两种物种预测未来的种群模式和海拔变化.
- 评估未来变暖下物种间竞争和息地避难的潜力.
主要方法:
- 使用的摄像头陷用于物种检测和空间显式捕获-重新捕获 (SECR) 建模.
- 分析温度作为影响人口密度的关键气候梯度.
- 将当前模型投射到未来的气候场景中,以预测未来的丰度和分布.
主要成果:
- 温度显著影响了密度模式:鱼密度下降,而鱼密度随着温度的上升而增加.
- 未来的预测表明鱼数量下降,鱼数量稳定,两种物种都转移到更高的海拔地区.
- 喜欢鱼的地区减少,喜欢鱼的地区扩大,对鱼的高海拔避难所有限.
结论:
- 温度梯度是寒冷和温暖适应哺乳动物密度模式在范围边缘的关键驱动因素.
- 预计气候变化将增加狮子和猫之间的竞争,可能导致狮子的流离失所.
- 该方法可应用于其他物种和山地系统,以预测气候变化下的种群轨迹和空间关联.
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