基于系统动态,分析和测量地下煤矿煤气爆炸中的多因素合风险
Huimin Guo1, Yifan Chen2, Lianhua Cheng3
1College of Safety Science and Engineering, Xi'an University of Science and Technology, Xi'an, 710054, Shaanxi, China. ghuimin@xust.edu.cn.
Scientific reports
|November 26, 2025
概括
这项研究使用系统动态来模拟煤矿燃气爆炸. 该研究揭示了人类和物质因素如何相互作用,显示累积风险并预测潜在的潜在风险.
科学领域:
- 采矿工程 采矿工程 采矿工程
- 系统动力学系统动力学
- 风险分析 风险分析
背景情况:
- 煤矿燃气爆炸带来了重大的安全风险.
- 了解进化机制对于预防至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为了研究煤矿燃气爆炸的进化机制.
- 为了提高煤矿系统的安全水平.
- 开发一个多因素合风险扣除模型.
主要方法:
- 使用了系统动态方法.
- 使用Vensim软件来模拟人类和物质因素子系统.
- 分析了指数变量的风险水平和趋势.
主要成果:
- 该模型证明了在预测煤矿燃气爆炸风险方面具有适用性和可行性.
- 分析揭示了hysteresis和系统变量对风险的累积影响.
- 观察到意外演变中的出现和突变现象.
结论:
- 开发的模型提供了关于煤矿燃气爆炸的复杂动态的见解.
- 调查结果可以为减轻风险和提高矿山安全的策略提供信息.
- 了解因素相互作用是防止灾难性事件的关键.
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