分析和预测与急性热相关的患者入院情况在德国开姆尼茨医院
J Thiel1, E Henke2, M Sedlmayr2
1Institute for Medical Informatics and Biometry, Faculty of Medicine and University Hospital Carl Gustav Carus, TUD Dresden University of Technology, Fetscherstraße 74, 01307, Dresden, Germany. jakob.thiel@tu-dresden.de.
Archives of public health = Archives belges de sante publique
|November 27, 2025
概括
气候变化加剧了热浪,增加了健康风险. 这项研究量化了热量.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 气候变化影响 气候变化影响
- 公共卫生监督 公共卫生监督
背景情况:
- 全球气温上升和急性热浪频率增加对人类健康构成重大风险.
- 由于气候变化引起的健康紧急情况,医疗保健系统面临着不断升级的挑战.
- 了解暴露于热量和住院患者之间的关系对于公共卫生准备至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 量化环境温度与住院病人的相关性.
- 开发一个预测模型,用于预测热情事件期间的患者入院情况.
- 为热应激提供初级预防措施和医疗保健计划的信息.
主要方法:
- 来自Chemnitz医院的住院数据 (2018-2023) 的回顾性分析.
- 包括与体积消耗,心血管事件,呼吸系统疾病,晒伤和热效应相关的诊断.
- 相关性和回归分析 (单变量和多变量) 检查最高温度 (≥23°C,≥30°C),湿度,气压和日照时间.
主要成果:
- 在最高温度和住院患者之间发现了显著的正相关性 (r=0.88,p<0.01对于≥30°C).
- 在23°C-29°C之间观察到非线性U形关系,过渡到30°C以上的线性效应.
- 住院病例进一步受到空气压力,湿度和阳光时间的影响,特别是在高温期间.
结论:
- 热量暴露和住院患者之间存在复杂的非线性关联.
- 基于温度和其他气象因素,成功开发了患者入院的预测模型.
- 强调需要采取初级预防策略,并将热应激考虑纳入医疗保健系统规划.
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