使用队列理论来估计需求容量:在2023年土耳其地震中应用于医院资源规划
1Hatay Mustafa Kemal University Health Application and Research Hospital, 31060, Antakya, Hatay, Türkiye.
Human resources for health
|November 27, 2025
概括
一个新的模型使用土耳其的真实数据准确地估计了地震后的紧急医生需求. 该工具通过预测最佳医疗保健提供人员需求来帮助灾难应对计划.
科学领域:
- 灾难医学 灾难医学
- 数学建模的数学建模
- 公共卫生准备情况 公共卫生准备情况
背景情况:
- 地震对医疗保健基础设施和需求构成重大挑战.
- 医务人员准确预测对于有效应对灾害至关重要.
- 以前的模型往往缺乏与现实世界的灾难数据的验证.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证一个数学模型,用于在地震后的场景中估计紧急医生需求.
- 利用土耳其2023年卡拉曼马拉斯地震的实际数据进行模型开发和验证.
- 为医生在灾难情况下有效规划工作人员提供一个工具.
主要方法:
- 采用了五步框架,分析了人口影响,建筑脆弱性和伤亡估计.
- 经验脆弱性函数被用来根据地震强度来确定崩概率.
- 应用M/M/s队列理论模型来计算医生需求,考虑到患者到达率和检查时间.
主要成果:
- 该模型预测,在地震发生后的144小时内,Hatay省的急救部门访问了11,645次.
- 据估计,每班需要27名急诊医生 (共81名),以满足预计的需求.
- 模型估计与灾后实际住院数据密切一致,证实了其有效性.
结论:
- 已经开发了一个可扩展的,数据验证的模型,用于灾难医生员工计划.
- 基于队列的方法促进了战略性资源配置,并提高了卫生系统的弹性.
- 该模型的特定领域数据集成提供了实时的医疗系统需求预测.
相关概念视频
The Availability Heuristic
6.9K
A heuristic is a general problem-solving framework (Tversky & Kahneman, 1974). You can think of these as mental shortcuts that are used to solve problems. Different types of heuristics are used in different types of situations, and the impulse to use a heuristic occurs when one of five conditions is met (Pratkanis, 1989):
6.9K
Parametric Survival Analysis: Weibull and Exponential Methods
995
Parametric survival analysis models survival data by assuming a specific probability distribution for the time until an event occurs. The Weibull and exponential distributions are two of the most commonly used methods in this context, due to their versatility and relatively straightforward application.
Weibull Distribution
The Weibull distribution is a flexible model used in parametric survival analysis. It can handle both increasing and decreasing hazard rates, depending on its shape parameter...
Weibull Distribution
The Weibull distribution is a flexible model used in parametric survival analysis. It can handle both increasing and decreasing hazard rates, depending on its shape parameter...
995
Hazard Rate
383
The hazard rate, also known as the hazard function or failure rate, is a statistical measure used to describe the instantaneous rate at which an event occurs, given that the event has not yet happened. From a probabilistic perspective, it represents the likelihood that a subject will experience the event in a very small time interval, conditional on surviving up to the beginning of that interval. In terms of frequency, the hazard rate can be viewed as the ratio of the number of events to the...
383
Steps in Outbreak Investigation
472
In the ever-evolving field of public health, statistical analysis serves as a cornerstone for understanding and managing disease outbreaks. By leveraging various statistical tools, health professionals can predict potential outbreaks, analyze ongoing situations, and devise effective responses to mitigate impact. For that to happen, there are a few possible stages of the analysis:
472
Issues And Trends In Healthcare Delivery System
6.1K
The issues and trends in healthcare delivery are constantly changing. The COVID-19 pandemic is one recent issue that wreaked havoc on healthcare systems, causing a shortage of healthcare workers, high demand for medicines and supplies, and increased medical expenditure due to a lack of insurance. Other issues include rising healthcare costs and care fragmentation.
Cost Containment
Payment for healthcare services has historically promoted adoption of costly and often unnecessary or inefficient...
Cost Containment
Payment for healthcare services has historically promoted adoption of costly and often unnecessary or inefficient...
6.1K
Health Information Technology and Healthcare Information System
3.3K
Health Information Technology (HIT)
Health Information Technology, commonly called HIT, integrates advanced information systems and technology in healthcare settings. Its primary functions include:
Health Information Technology, commonly called HIT, integrates advanced information systems and technology in healthcare settings. Its primary functions include:
3.3K


