1970年代中期英国出生季节性的突然转变及其对时代生物学研究的影响
Timothy J Hearn1, David Whitmore2,3
1Department of Genomic Medicine, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
Journal of biological rhythms
|November 27, 2025
概括
英国的人类出生率在20世纪70年代中期经历了显著的转变,改变了季节性模式. 这种与社会因素相关的变化会影响生殖时间,因此在使用英国出生数据的研究中需要仔细考虑.
科学领域:
- 人类生殖生物学 人类生殖生物学
- 时间生物学 时间生物学
- 人口统计分析 人口统计分析
背景情况:
- 季节性出生模式在人类繁殖中表现出一种年度节奏.
- 历史数据表明,在20世纪70年代中期之前,英国的模式稳定.
研究的目的:
- 分析英国 (1955-2015年) 季节性出生率的历史波动和重新分阶段.
- 研究环境因素 (光周期,温度) 和社会变化对生殖时间的影响.
主要方法:
- 对英格兰和威尔士每月活产记录的分析.
- 使用了国家光周期和表面温度数据系列.
- 应用了快速里叶变换,断点测试,交叉相关性和滑动窗口统计.
主要成果:
- 一个强大的12个月的出生节奏被证实,在1974年至1976年之间发生了显著的阶段转移.
- 1976年之前:高峰怀孕与夏至一致,导致3月出生最大,与光周期有很强的相关性.
- 1976年后:节奏脱,导致春季峰值崩,秋季峰值出现,年间变化翻了一番,以及与温度的持续,较弱的反向联系.
结论:
- 20世纪70年代中期标志着英国生殖日历的独特破坏,与广泛的荷尔蒙避孕药和社会变化相吻合.
- 人类的生殖时间表表现出可塑性,受生物和社会环境驱动因素的影响.
- 建议在研究由于变化的模式而探讨出生季节影响的研究中将1974年前后英国出生队列组合在一起时谨慎行事.
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