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在预计气候变化条件下,预测东亚水域三种生态重要鱼类的息地适宜性和范围动态

Ifeanyi Christopher Nneji^1,2, Winnie Wanjiku Mambo³, Zhao Zheng^1,2

¹Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Marine Disaster Prediction and Prevention, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Marine Biotechnology, Institute of Marine Sciences, Shantou University, Shantou 515063, China.

|November 27, 2025

概括

气候变化威胁到东亚的鱼类分布. 预测显示,一些物种的息地丧失,另一些物种的息地扩张,目前的海洋保护区 (MPA) 覆盖范围有限,需要适应性保护战略.

科学领域:

海洋生态海洋生态学
气候变化生物学
渔业科学渔业科学

背景情况:

在生态上重要的鱼类面临着气候变化带来的重大威胁,需要预测它们未来的分布和息地适宜性.
了解这些转变对于有效的渔业管理和海洋保护工作至关重要.

研究的目的:

在当前和未来的气候场景下,模拟东亚三种主要鱼类 (Collichthys lucidus,Konosirus punctatus和Clupanodon thrissa) 的潜在分布范围.
确定关键的环境预测因素,并评估当前海洋保护区 (MPA) 对这些物种的充分性.

主要方法:

种类分布建模框架使用来自GBIF和OBIS的发生数据.
环境数据来源于Bio-ORACLE数据库,用于当前和预测的气候场景.
保护差距分析,以评估物种分布范围的MPA覆盖范围.

主要成果:

模型表现出高的预测性能 (AUC>0.88).
溶解的氧气和盐度是C. lucidus的关键预测因素; 叶绿素和酸盐是K. punctatus和C. thrissa的关键预测因素.
预测表明C. lucidus的息地减少,K. punctatus和C. thrissa的范围向更高度扩大.
适合息地集中在专属经济区内的沿海地区,MPA覆盖率低 (2-7%).

结论:

预计气候变化将改变鱼类的分布,对物种产生不同的影响.
目前的MPA不足以保护这些生态重要鱼类物种.
迫切需要适应性管理,包括保护区扩张和跨境合作,以确保渔业的弹性.

关键词:

气候变化气候变化气候变化分销班的时间变化.东亚东亚亚洲东亚亚洲生态利基建模生态利基建模渔业渔业渔业是一个渔业.海洋保护区海洋保护区

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