在当前和未来的气候场景下,使用MaxEnt模型预测内蒙古Galeruca daurica的潜在分布
Tian-Yu Xu1, Xiao-Shuan Bai1,2, M U Ren1,2
1College of Life Science and Technology, Inner Mongolia Normal University, Hohhot 010022, China.
Biology
|November 27, 2025
概括
预计气候变化将在内蒙古减少适合害虫甲虫Galeruca daurica的息地. 预计其分布将向北转移,影响草原生态系统.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 气候变化生物学 气候变化生物学
- 虫害管理 虫害管理 虫害管理
背景情况:
- 内蒙古面临着草原退化和虫 (Galeruca daurica) 的反复爆发,气候变化加剧了这种情况.
- 了解Galeruca daurica的分布对于在这个关键地区进行生态风险评估和管理至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 在当前和未来的气候场景下,预测Galeruca daurica的潜在地理分布.
- 为了为这个重要的草原害虫提供风险评估和管理战略的信息.
主要方法:
- 采用了最大 (MaxEnt) 模型,使用了122个事件记录和环境数据 (气候,地形,地形).
- 模拟息地适合当前条件和未来2050年代和2070年代的代表性度路径 (SSPs).
- 确定了关键的环境预测因素:最潮湿月份的降水量,年度降水量和年度温度范围.
主要成果:
- 马克森特模型表现出色 (AUC > 0.9).
- 目前,大约44.9%的内蒙古提供了合适的息地,主要是在干旱和半干旱地区.
- 未来的预测表明,适合息地的收缩,最显著的是在SSP2-4.5下 (23.56%到2070年代),分布向北转移.
结论:
- 气候变化可能会减少并改变Galeruca daurica的适当地理范围.
- 这些发现为开发早期预警系统和针对脆弱草原的Galeruca daurica有针对性的控制措施提供了科学基础.
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