气候变化与人类活动:对高海拔临灭绝的蛇 (Thermophis baileyi) 的冲突未来影响
Yuxue Pan1, Ruiying Han1, Fengbin Dai1
1State Key Laboratory of Environmental Criteria and Risk Assessment, Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing 100012, China.
Biology
|November 27, 2025
概括
气候变化和景观变化威胁到西藏的温泉蛇. 温和的变暖有利于息地,但极端的变暖和土地利用减少了它,需要对高海拔的热带生物进行综合保护.
科学领域:
- 生态学和进化生物学.
- 保护生物学 保护生物学
- 气候变化科学 气候变化科学
背景情况:
- 高海拔生态热植物面临着气候变化和人类活动带来的重大威胁.
- 量化指标来区分这些压力因素对物种息地是有限的.
- 西藏温泉蛇 (Thermophis baileyi) 是一个脆弱地区的特有物种.
研究的目的:
- 解开气候变化和人为景观变化的独立和协同影响Thermophis baileyi的息地适宜性.
- 开发一个多场景框架来评估这些双重威胁.
- 为高海拔生态热植物的保护计划提供见解.
主要方法:
- 使用了物种分布模型和CA-马尔科夫模型.
- 综合现场调查数据和物种发生记录.
- 采用了新的多场景框架来分析气候和土地覆盖面变化的影响.
主要成果:
- 温度季节性是蛇分布的主要驱动因素 (41.8%),其次是寒季降雨 (15.1%) 和土地覆盖 (13.8%).
- 温和的变暖使高适宜性息地 (HSH) 增加了24.03-38.55%,而极端的变暖使HSH减少,并将分布向北转移.
- 景观变化减少了HSH的5.98%和减弱了气候的好处4.99-11.31%.
结论:
- 极端气候变暖和土地覆盖面变化的协同压力严重抵消了T的气候效益. 贝莱伊 (Baleyi) 是一个
- 目前的保护区不足以覆盖该物种高度适合的息地.
- 综合保护战略对于缓解全球变化所面临的高海拔生态热植物息地退化至关重要.
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