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相关概念视频

Receiver Operating Characteristic Plot01:15

Receiver Operating Characteristic Plot

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A ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristic) plot is a graphical tool used to assess the performance of a binary classification model by illustrating the trade-off between sensitivity (true positive rate) and specificity (false positive rate). By plotting sensitivity against 1 - specificity across various threshold settings, the ROC curve shows how well the model distinguishes between classes, with a curve closer to the top-left corner indicating a more accurate model. The area under the ROC curve...
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Multiple regression assesses a linear relationship between one response or dependent variable and two or more independent variables. It has many practical applications.
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The correlation coefficient, r, developed by Karl Pearson in the early 1900s, is numerical and provides a measure of strength and direction of the linear association between the independent variable x and the dependent variable y.
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相关实验视频

Updated: Jan 10, 2026

An Inertial Measurement Unit Based Method to Estimate Hip and Knee Joint Kinematics in Team Sport Athletes on the Field
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外部负载比对职业足球中受伤风险的每周预测值:一个物流回归和ROC曲线分析方法.

Andreas Fousekis1, Konstantinos Fousekis2, Georgios Fousekis2

  • 1Laboratory of Evaluation of Human Biological Performance, Department of Physical Education and Sports Science, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 57001 Thessaloniki, Greece.

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PubMed
概括

急性:慢性工作负载比率 (ACWR) 可以预测足球运动员的非接触性伤害. 中等速度的跑步和冲刺ACWR是关键指标,有助于优化训练负载并降低受伤风险.

关键词:
ACWRR ACWRR 在线播放足球 足球 足球 足球伤害预测 伤害预测伤害预防伤害预防职业足球 专业足球 足球

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科学领域:

  • 运动科学 运动科学 运动科学
  • 伤害预防 预防伤害
  • 生物力学 生物力学

背景情况:

  • 非接触性伤害是职业足球中的一个重要问题.
  • 准确预测受伤风险对于优化球员表现和寿命至关重要.
  • 急性:慢性工作负载比率 (ACWR) 越来越多地用于监测训练负载.

研究的目的:

  • 评估ACWRs对精英足球运动员非接触性伤害的每周预测能力.
  • 确定在预测受伤风险方面最有效的特定工作负载指标.
  • 建立训练负载管理的实际伤害风险门.

主要方法:

  • 一组由40名职业足球运动员组成的队伍在两个赛季中使用GPS进行了监控.
  • 双项逻辑回归和ROC曲线分析应用于ACWR指标 (总距离,中等至高速跑步,冲刺,加速,减速) 在受伤前四周.
  • 使用p值评估统计显著性,并根据多次比较与错误发现率 (FDR) 校正 (q <0.05) 进行调整.

主要成果:

  • 对于中等速度 (15-20公里/小时) 跑步和冲刺 (>25公里/小时) 的ACWR指标显示了非接触性伤害的显著预测价值.
  • 中等速度跑步的ACWR (DSR15-20) 在受伤前的第3周显示出最高的预测准确性 (AUC = 0.811).
  • 冲刺ACWR (DSR>25) 也是第1-4周的重要预测因素 (AUC = 0.709-0.755).
  • 加速和减速指标最初显示有意义,但在FDR调整后失去了意义.
  • 总距离和高速运行ACWR是较弱的预测因素.
  • 在FDR调整后,只有DSR15-20和DSR>25仍然是统计学上显著的预测指标 (q <0.05).
  • 多变量模型证实了DSR15-20和DSR>25的独立预测值,根据年龄和比赛位置进行调整.

结论:

  • 每周对ACWR的监测提供了一种实用的方法,用于分析精英足球中的非接触性伤害风险.
  • 特定的ACWR指标,特别是在中等速度的跑步和冲刺比赛中,可以有效地识别高风险的球员.
  • 这种方法使培训人员能够实施有针对性的负载管理策略,以尽量减少受伤的发生率.