禽流感病毒亚型H7在俄罗斯联邦的引入和传播的风险评估
Dmitry Varvashenko1, Sergey Shcherbinin1, Andrey Varkentin1
1Federal Centre for Animal Health, 600901 Vladimir, Russia.
Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland)
|November 27, 2025
概括
本研究确定了俄罗斯H7禽流感 (AI) 引入和传播的高风险地区. 建议加强关键联邦地区的监视和生物安全,以防止未来的疫情爆发.
科学领域:
- 兽医流行病学 兽医流行病学
- 疾病生态学 疾病生态学
- 生物安全是生物安全.
背景情况:
- 禽流感 (AI) 是全球对家禽的重大威胁.
- 了解人工智能传播因素对于预防至关重要.
- H7亚型对家禽养殖造成特别的风险.
研究的目的:
- 分析H7AI爆发的景观和人口因素.
- 在俄罗斯确定人工智能引入和传播的高风险地区.
- 开发人工智能爆发的预测模型.
主要方法:
- 使用最大值 (MaxEnt) 算法用于两个模型:引入和扩散.
- 训练有素的引入模型与来自欧洲和东南亚的AI爆发数据.
- 使用引入模型输出和俄罗斯数据进行训练的传播模型.
主要成果:
- 在俄罗斯,这两种模型都显示出高的预测可靠性 (AUC 0.855 和 0.993).
- 在中部,南部,北高加索和伏尔加联邦区确定了高概率的AI事件.
- 突出显示了乌拉尔,西伯利亚和远东联邦区的边境地区作为潜在的风险区.
结论:
- 在已确定为高风险的俄罗斯地区,加强疾病监测是必要的.
- 建议加强生物安全措施和野生鸟类监测.
- 保持疫苗库存对于及时制疫情至关重要.
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