对Budd-Chiari综合征复发风险因素的分析:使用零膨胀模型进行回顾性研究
Shengli Li1,2, Xiangting Liu3, Muyao Zhou4
1Clinical Research Institute, The Affiliated Hospital of Xuzhou Medical University, Xuzhou, Jiangsu, China.
Medicine
|November 27, 2025
概括
零膨胀负二项式 (ZINB) 模型最好预测Budd-Chiari综合征 (BCS) 的复发. 影响BCS复发的关键因素包括年龄,性别,抗凝剂使用,肝硬化缺失和中性粒细胞计数.
科学领域:
- 医学统计 医学统计
- 肝病学 肝病学是一种肝病学.
- 临床研究 临床研究
背景情况:
- 布德-奇亚里综合征 (BCS) 是一种罕见的疾病,其特征是肝静脉外流阻塞.
- 了解和预测BCS复发对于患者管理和改善结果至关重要.
- 现有的统计模型可能无法充分捕捉BCS中复杂的复杂性.
研究的目的:
- 确定最佳的统计模型来评估Budd-Chiari综合征复发的频率.
- 分析与BCS复发相关的关键因素.
- 为更好的临床预测和预防BCS复发的预防策略提供见解.
主要方法:
- 对754名BCS患者进行了回顾性分析.
- 构建和比较了四种计数结果模型:Poisson,负二项式 (NB),零膨胀的Poisson (ZIP) 和零膨胀的负二项式 (ZINB).
- 模型性能使用日志-概率比率测试进行评估,使用最合适的模型来探索复发因子.
主要成果:
- 与ZIP模型相比,ZINB模型的适应性更好,NB模型的表现优于Poisson模型.
- 由ZINB模型确定的BCS复发的显著预测因素包括年龄,女性性别,抗凝剂使用 (华法林和没有抗凝剂与NOACs),肝硬化不存在以及中性粒细胞计数 (NEU).
- 零膨胀模型方法在确定影响BCS复发的因素方面被证明是可靠的.
结论:
- 由于其强大的性能,建议使用ZINB模型来评估BCS复发频率.
- 诸如年龄,性别,抗凝剂状况,肝硬化和中性粒细胞数等因素是BCS复发的重要决定因素.
- 这些发现可以为预测和潜在地减轻BCS复发的临床实践提供信息.
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