全球风暴潮时间集群的全球分析
Ariadna Martín1,2, Robert Jane1,2, Alejandra R Enriquez3
1Department of Civil, Environmental and Construction Engineering, University of Central Florida, Orlando, FL, USA.
Cambridge prisms. Coastal futures
|November 27, 2025
概括
沿海风暴潮集群,是一系列在一个地区发生的事件,显著影响洪水和侵蚀. 分析显示,大多数沿海地区都经历了集群,挑战了标准频率分析.
科学领域:
- 地球和环境科学 地球和环境科学
- 海洋学 海洋学 海洋学
- 沿海工程 沿海工程
背景情况:
- 临时风暴潮集群在短时间内涉及多个事件,加剧沿海洪水和侵蚀.
- 了解这些集群对于有效的沿海危险管理至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 用潮数据和全球模型后预测分析全球风暴潮集群.
- 确定极端风暴潮集群的地理热点,并评估它们的频率.
- 调查空间分布和强度对聚类的贡献.
主要方法:
- 分析来自潮计的全球风暴浪潮数据和最先进的全球模型后预测.
- 评估风暴潮事件的空间分布和强度.
- 评估时间聚类制度 (年内和年内).
- 测试Poisson分布假设用于风暴潮频率分析的有效性.
主要成果:
- 在全球范围内,92%的沿海地区在1年回报期事件中表现出显著的时间聚类,25%的5年回报水平事件.
- 确定了两种不同的集群制度:短期 (年内) 和长期 (年内).
- 超过80%的分析站偏离波桑分布的风暴潮频率,特别是当包括不那么极端的事件.
结论:
- 风暴浪潮时间集群是一种广泛的现象,具有显著的空间变化.
- 已确定的集群制度对沿海恢复时间和危险评估具有关键影响.
- 对于风暴浪潮频率分析,Poisson分布的常见假设往往是无效的,需要改进的方法.
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