在药物流行病学中,机器学习方法是否比传统方法更好地做出预测? 一个系统的审查,元分析和网络元分析
Ana Paula Bruno Pena-Gralle1, Mireille E Schnitzer2, Sofia-Nada Boureguaa1
1Faculty of Pharmacy, Université de Montréal, Montréal, QC, Canada.
Artificial intelligence in medicine
|November 27, 2025
概括
机器学习 (ML) 模型在药理流行病学中比传统的统计 (CS) 方法具有适度的预测性能优势. 像渐变增强机和XGBoost这样的增强ML方法是表现最好的,尽管报告严格性需要改进.
科学领域:
- 药学流行病学 药学流行病学
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
- 医疗信息学 医疗信息学
背景情况:
- 药理流行病学利用统计模型来评估药物的安全性和有效性.
- 预测建模对于识别药物的潜在风险和益处至关重要.
- 将传统的统计 (CS) 和机器学习 (ML) 方法进行比较对于提高预测准确性至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 系统地综合证据,比较CS模型和ML方法在药理流行病学中的预测性能.
- 使用元分析和网络元分析量化ML与CS模型的性能优势.
- 确定用于制药流行病学预测的最佳ML方法.
主要方法:
- 在Medline,Embase,PsycINFO,CINAHL和Web of Science的系统文献搜索 (2018年1月至2025年9月).
- 提取预测指标,并通过独立审查员对比的质量评估.
- 进行元分析和贝叶斯网络元分析 (NMA),以组合性能指标 (AUC比率).
主要成果:
- 包括65项涵盖83个预测目标的研究;ML在84%的目标中胜过CS.
- 在低偏差风险的研究中,聚合的AUC比率有利于ML (1.07,95%CI1.03-1.12),具有很高的异质性.
- 网络元分析证实了ML的优势 (AUC比1.07),其中梯度增强机和XGBoost是表现最好的.
结论:
- 在药物流行病学中,ML方法在区分性表现方面比CS模型提供了一致的,尽管是温和的优势.
- 增强的ML方法,特别是GBM和XGBoost,表现出卓越的性能.
- 建议加强方法报告,以提高研究透明度和可重复性.
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