床岩升起减少了南极海平面在未来几个世纪的贡献
C J van Calcar1,2, J Bernales3,4, C J Berends3
1Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands. c.j.vancalcar@tudelft.nl.
Nature communications
|November 27, 2025
概括
在冰盖模型中包括固体地球调整,将南极接地线的撤退延迟50-130年. 这将使南极冰盖对海平面上升的贡献减少9-23%.
科学领域:
- *冰川学和地球系统科学.
- *气候变化影响和海平面上升研究.
背景情况:
- *南极冰盖对全球海平面上升的贡献是显著的,但高度不确定.
- *目前的海平面预测往往忽略了诸如基岩调整和地球结构异质性等关键因素.
- * 冰盖的撤退可能会触发基岩升起,可能会稳定接地线.
研究的目的:
- * 调查固体地球异质性对南极冰盖稳定性和海平面贡献的影响.
- * 当考虑基石调整时,量化地面线退缩的延迟和海平面上升的减少.
- *与气候模型的不确定性相比,评估固体地球反的重要性.
主要方法:
- * 结合冰床岩模型的开发和应用.
- *在各种排放场景下模拟冰盖的行为,直到2500年.
- * 在模型中包含异质的地球结构.
主要成果:
- *考虑到固体地球的异质性,接地线的退缩延迟了50到130年.
- * 南极冰盖对静态海平面的贡献减少了9-23%.
- * 固态地球的反效应可能是气候模型差异引起的不确定性的两倍.
结论:
- * 现实的地球结构对于准确预测南极海平面贡献至关重要.
- *排除基岩调整导致对南极洲近期海平面上升的高估.
- * 百年级的海平面上升预测需要综合冰盖和固体地球建模.
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