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综合地震和海预警系统的可行性研究

Raffaele Rea^1,2, Antonio Scala^1,3, Fabrizio Bernardi⁴

¹Department of Physics E. Pancini, University of Naples Federico II, Naples, Italy.

Scientific reports

|November 27, 2025

概括

将地震预警系统 (EEWS) 与海预警系统 (TEWS) 整合起来,可以显著减少近地海的预警时间. 这种综合方法提供了快速,准确的地震数据,改善了海预测和沿海风险减轻.

科学领域:

地震地震学地震学
津波科学津波科学
自然危险预警系统的早期预警系统.

背景情况:

目前的海预警系统 (TEWS) 依靠地震数据进行快速预警,但近地海预警需要更快的响应时间.
缩短警报时间对于提高沿海疏散的时间和有效降低风险至关重要.
现有系统在提供足够快速和准确的地震源参数以立即评估海威胁方面面临挑战.

研究的目的:

评估将基于冲击的地震预警系统 (EEWS) QuakeUp集成到海预警系统 (TEWS) 工作流中.
调查EEWS地震源参数的早期性和准确性之间的权衡,以及它们对可能海预测 (PTF) 的影响.
为了证明EEWS-TEWS结合方法对近场海性地震的潜力.

主要方法:

使用QuakeUp对2020年10月30日M_w7.0的爱琴海地震进行后预测分析,以快速估计低中心和强度.
将QuakeUp的性能与用于地震参数估计的Early-Est操作软件进行比较.
应用概率海预测 (PTF) 使用QuakeUp的快速地震参数进行预测.
对梅西纳海峡的M_w 6-7次地震进行150个地震集的模拟,以验证集成工作流的稳定性.

主要成果:

对于爱琴海地震,QuakeUp在约40秒内提供了稳定而准确的低中心和强度估计,与已建立的系统相比.
综合工作流成功生成了可能的海预测,并与观察到的数据合理一致的运行预测.
在梅西纳海峡模拟的地震证实了工作流能够在一分钟内提供可靠的源估计.

结论:

将QuakeUp的EEWS集成到TEWS工作流中,为近地海预警提供了重大进步.
这种综合方法提高了地震源参数估计的速度和准确性,这对于及时发出海预警至关重要.
该研究展示了EEWS-TEWS双重战略的潜力,以改善海地震带来的沿海风险减轻.

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