使用模拟研究对斜随机生存森林,随机生存森林和时间到事件数据的统计模型进行比较
Abubaker Suliman1,2, Aminu S Abdullahi2, Mohammad Mehedy Masud3,4
1College of Information Technology, United Arab Emirates University, Al Ain, United Arab Emirates.
Scientific reports
|November 27, 2025
概括
在高度审查的情况下,统计模型在时间到事件预测方面表现优于机器学习算法. 传统模型的表现与先进机器学习的表现相当,但审查率较低.
科学领域:
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
- 医疗保健中的机器学习
- 预测模型的预测建模
背景情况:
- 时间到事件 (TTE) 机器学习 (ML) 算法越来越多地用于预后模型.
- 与传统的统计模型 (SMs) 相比,缺乏对它们的优势和局限性的系统评估.
研究的目的:
- 将TTE ML算法 (斜随机生存森林 - ORSF,随机生存森林 - RSF) 与SMs (Cox比例危险 - Cox PH,惩罚性Cox PH) 的预测性能和计算时间进行比较.
- 在不同的审查率,样本大小和预测效应的各种场景中评估算法性能.
主要方法:
- 根据比例危险 (PH) 假设,生成了18种场景.
- 使用哈雷尔的C指数和综合障碍评分 (IBS) 评估绩效.
- 使用单向重复测量ANOVA评估绩效差异.
主要成果:
- 在线性情景中,SM的表现优于RSF;ORSF变体的表现与SM相似.
- 在非线性情景下,中小企业的C指数始终高于RSF,与ORSF的差异很小.
- 与SM和ORSF相比,RSF的歧视程度较低;ORSF变体在歧视或校准方面没有显著差异.
结论:
- 传统的SM在TTE预测方面在更高的审查率下优于ML模型.
- 在较低的审查率下,SM与ORSF的表现相匹配,而RSF的表现通常较差.
- 在评估的ML模型中,ORSF-net表现出最长的训练时间.
相关概念视频
Comparing the Survival Analysis of Two or More Groups
538
Survival analysis is a cornerstone of medical research, used to evaluate the time until an event of interest occurs, such as death, disease recurrence, or recovery. Unlike standard statistical methods, survival analysis is particularly adept at handling censored data—instances where the event has not occurred for some participants by the end of the study or remains unobserved. To address these unique challenges, specialized techniques like the Kaplan-Meier estimator, log-rank test, and...
538
Survival Tree
374
Survival trees are a non-parametric method used in survival analysis to model the relationship between a set of covariates and the time until an event of interest occurs, often referred to as the "time-to-event" or "survival time." This method is particularly useful when dealing with censored data, where the event has not occurred for some individuals by the end of the study period, or when the exact time of the event is unknown.
Building a Survival Tree
Constructing a...
Building a Survival Tree
Constructing a...
374
Introduction To Survival Analysis
714
Survival analysis is a statistical method used to study time-to-event data, where the "event" might represent outcomes like death, disease relapse, system failure, or recovery. A unique feature of survival data is censoring, which occurs when the event of interest has not been observed for some individuals during the study period. This requires specialized techniques to handle incomplete data effectively.
The primary goal of survival analysis is to estimate survival time—the time...
The primary goal of survival analysis is to estimate survival time—the time...
714
Parametric Survival Analysis: Weibull and Exponential Methods
990
Parametric survival analysis models survival data by assuming a specific probability distribution for the time until an event occurs. The Weibull and exponential distributions are two of the most commonly used methods in this context, due to their versatility and relatively straightforward application.
Weibull Distribution
The Weibull distribution is a flexible model used in parametric survival analysis. It can handle both increasing and decreasing hazard rates, depending on its shape parameter...
Weibull Distribution
The Weibull distribution is a flexible model used in parametric survival analysis. It can handle both increasing and decreasing hazard rates, depending on its shape parameter...
990
Assumptions of Survival Analysis
385
Survival models analyze the time until one or more events occur, such as death in biological organisms or failure in mechanical systems. These models are widely used across fields like medicine, biology, engineering, and public health to study time-to-event phenomena. To ensure accurate results, survival analysis relies on key assumptions and careful study design.
385
Censoring Survival Data
505
Survival analysis is a statistical method used to analyze time-to-event data, often employed in fields such as medicine, engineering, and social sciences. One of the key challenges in survival analysis is dealing with incomplete data, a phenomenon known as "censoring." Censoring occurs when the event of interest (such as death, relapse, or system failure) has not occurred for some individuals by the end of the study period or is otherwise unobservable, and it might have many different...
505


