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气候变化可能会增加适合入侵淡水鱼在新热带盆地的息地

Cristian Martínez-González¹, Lúcia Mateus², Thadeu Sobral-Souza³

¹Ecology and Biodiversity Conservation, Institute of Biological Sciences, Federal University of Mato Grosso, Av. Fernando Corrêa, 2367, Cuiabá, Mato Grosso, 78060-900, Brazil. ccmartinez2@uc.cl.

Scientific reports

|November 27, 2025

概括

气候变化可能会增加入侵物种的传播. 这项研究模拟了潘坦纳尔的入侵性鱼适合息地的模型,揭示了当前和未来广泛的扩张风险,突出了早期检测和保护战略的必要性.

科学领域:

生态生态学生态生态学
侵入性物种生物学生物学
保护科学保护科学

背景情况:

气候变化是外来入侵物种 (IAS) 传播的已知驱动因素,但研究仍然有限.
确定适合引入IAS的息地对于有效的生物多样性保护和生态系统管理至关重要.
上巴拉圭河流域,包括潘坦纳尔湿地,面临来自入侵鱼类物种的威胁.

研究的目的:

模拟巴西上巴拉圭河流域三种入侵性虫物种的息地适应性.
为了确定区域,分盆地和水库在高风险的IAS鱼传播.
在未来的气候变化场景下,预测潜在的范围扩展.

主要方法:

整合在线,博物馆和实验室事件数据库.
通过采访和社交媒体数据,从渔民那里吸收当地生态知识 (LEK).
应用生态利基模型 (ENM) 来评估息地的适宜性.

主要成果:

在整个研究盆地中,发现了大量适合入侵鱼的息地.
目前,适合息地覆盖了50%的潘坦纳尔湿地和高达90%的上游子盆地.
未来的气候场景预测,适合息地的显著扩张,可能覆盖几乎整个潘坦纳尔泛滥平原.

结论:

由于气候变化,入侵性类物种可能会在潘坦纳尔的洪水平原中大幅扩大范围.
将ENM与公民科学数据相结合,对于IAS的早期检测和风险评估具有价值.
这些发现支持制定预防策略和保护努力,以减轻IAS对本土生物多样性的影响.

关键词:

奇拉凯尔贝里 (Cichla kelberi) 是一种植物.齐克拉皮基蒂蒂 (Cichla piquiti) 是一种葡萄.色色素尼洛蒂库斯 (Oreochromis niloticus) 是一种色的植物.蓝色孔雀低音蓝色孔雀低音在Instagram上使用Instagram.尼罗河的提拉皮亚 (tilapia) 是一个鱼类.黄色的孔雀低音黄孔雀低音

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