评估谷歌趋势作为症状发生率的代理:英格兰2023/24冬季COVID-19感染研究的见解
Phoebe Asplin1,2, Martyn Fyles1, Jack Kennedy1
1https://ror.org/00vbvha87UK Health Security Agency, UK.
Epidemiology and infection
|November 28, 2025
概括
谷歌趋势可以跟踪社区感染的发生率,但验证是关键. 这项研究发现谷歌趋势与冬季COVID-19感染研究 (WCIS) 症状数据一致,尽管症状和年龄组有所不同.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 数字流行病学数字流行病学
- 公共卫生监督 公共卫生监督
背景情况:
- 谷歌趋势是一个广泛使用的代理用于跟踪传染病传播.
- 传统的监测方法往往对严重的结果和特定的人口统计学有偏见,限制了它们的代表性.
- 将数字监控信号与强大的社区数据进行验证对于准确的公共卫生监测至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 评估谷歌趋势数据与英格兰冬季COVID-19感染研究 (WCIS) 期间社区报告的症状发生率之间的一致性.
- 量化谷歌趋势搜索数据与WCIS衍生症状发生率和增长率之间的时间关系和相关性.
- 为了确定不同症状和年龄的人口统计数据之间一致的变化.
主要方法:
- 利用具有多层次回归和后分层的通用化添加模型,从WCIS数据中估计症状流行率.
- 采用间隔审查的时间延迟建模来估计症状持续时间并将患病率转换为发病率.
- 从谷歌趋势和WCIS使用交叉相关性分析比较发病率和增长率.
主要成果:
- 谷歌趋势和WCIS之间的协议因症状和年龄组而异.
- 在喉疼痛生长率 (0.81) 中观察到高交叉相关性.
- 谷歌趋势数据通常落后于WCIS增长率,不同症状的延迟从-3.0至-12.0天不等.
结论:
- 谷歌趋势可以与社区症状发生率保持一致,提供一种有价值的补充监控工具.
- 症状和年龄组之间一致性的实质性差异需要仔细解释和针对性地应用谷歌趋势数据.
- 这些发现突显了谷歌趋势对预测其他公共卫生监测指标的潜在实用性,前提是验证并考虑其局限性.
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