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走向一个新的AI冬天? 如何在网络上传播技术创新导致混乱的繁荣-衰退周期
Sabin Roman1,2,3, Francesco Bertolotti3,4
1Department of Knowledge Technologies, Jožef Stefan Institute, Ljubljana, Slovenia.
Frontiers in artificial intelligence
|November 28, 2025
概括
本研究介绍了一种数学模型,以了解技术发展和人工智能的演变. 它揭示了过度投资和扩散如何导致混乱的繁荣衰退周期,可能导致人工智能冬季.
科学领域:
- 复杂系统科学 复杂系统科学
- 技术创新研究 技术创新研究
- 人工智能研究 人工智能研究
背景情况:
- 技术进步和人工智能 (AI) 是当代重要的关注点.
- 了解技术社会格局的定量模型是有限的.
- 现有的研究往往忽视了技术发展的相互联系性质.
研究的目的:
- 为理解技术发展模式提出统一的数学模型.
- 在技术格局中识别不同的进化制度.
- 分析创新传播和投资对技术生命周期的影响.
主要方法:
- 在相互连接的技术之间开发了一种创新传播模型.
- 纳入了由相关技术影响的技术开发潜力的变量.
- 构建了一个三维的供需投资系统来模拟商业周期.
- 结合传播和投资模型来分析网络动态.
主要成果:
- 成功地复制了计算和大型语言模型 (LLM) 的长期趋势.
- 证明过度投资可能导致波动或商业周期.
- 展示了网络中的高投资和扩散如何导致混乱的繁荣-衰退周期.
- 在非可变代币 (NFT) 交易数据中观察到复制的繁荣衰退模式.
结论:
- 该模型为理解技术演变和市场动态提供了定量框架.
- 高水平的投资和传播可能会破坏技术市场的稳定,导致不可预测的周期.
- 这些发现对人工智能发展有重大影响,包括"人工智能冬季"的可能性.
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