整形外科相关疾病的全球负担,1990-2021年:对构成有意识的分析,并预测到2050年
Chengcheng Zhang1,2, Xi Chen3, Wenjuan Ying1,2
1The First Affiliated Hospital of Shantou University Medical College, Shantou, Guangdong, China.
Frontiers in public health
|November 28, 2025
概括
整形手术疾病在全球范围内正在上升,主要是由皮肤炎感染引起的. 预测显示,到2050年,绝对负担将增加,特别是在老年人群中,需要有针对性的干预措施.
科学领域:
- 全球卫生流行病学
- 整形外科研究 整形外科研究
- 疾病负担分析疾病负担分析
背景情况:
- 与整形外科相关的疾病代表着一个重大的,不断升级的全球健康挑战.
- 关于这些条件的时间趋势和未来预测的全面数据有限.
研究的目的:
- 从1990年到2021年,量化12种与整形手术相关的疾病的全球,区域和国家负担.
- 预测到2050年的疾病负担轨迹.
主要方法:
- 利用2021年全球疾病负担研究对204个国家的数据.
- 分析了根据年龄标准化的发病率,流行率,死亡率和根据残疾调整的寿命年 (DALYs).
- 采用贝叶斯年龄周期队列 (BAPC) 模型进行预测,并通过SDI分层评估社会人口差异.
主要成果:
- 全球发病率上升,以皮肤炎为主,年龄标准化发病率上升.
- 患病率,死亡率和DALYs率下降,在60岁以上的成年人中观察到的最大负担.
- 尽管患病率较高,但高SDI地区的死亡率/DALY较低,预测显示随着老龄化,绝对负担的持续增长.
结论:
- 皮肤炎显著推动了与整形手术相关疾病的发病率不断增加.
- 手术相关的负担集中在瘤和烧伤/创伤病例中,指导服务影响.
- 未来的预测强调了有针对性的预防和康复策略的需要,特别是在手术管理的子组中,考虑到SDI的变化.
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