使用贝叶斯空间元回归方法,确定热浪与早产之间的联系的县级效应修饰因素
Shuqi Lin1, Howard H Chang2, Lyndsey A Darrow3
1Department of Biostatistics, Yale School of Public Health, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA.
Spatial and spatio-temporal epidemiology
|November 28, 2025
概括
高温会增加早产风险,特别是在弱势群体中. 住房质量和社会脆弱性等因素影响这些风险,突出了公共卫生干预的领域.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 空间统计的空间统计.
背景情况:
- 高温与不良健康结果有关,特别是影响孕妇和胎儿.
- 之前的研究探讨了温度和早产之间的地理联系,但不太关注空间变化和促成因素.
研究的目的:
- 估计美国八个州热浪和早产之间的县级关联.
- 为了确定修改这些热浪和早产相关的县级因素.
主要方法:
- 采用了两阶段建模方法.
- 层次贝叶斯空间元回归,结合条件自回归模型,用于解释状态内的空间相关性.
- 开发了一个R包,SpMeta,用于合成区域级风险估计.
主要成果:
- 确定了热浪和早产之间在县级有显著的关联.
- 报告报告了几个改变因素,包括住房质量,能源负担能力和社会脆弱性指标 (少数群体地位,语言障碍).
结论:
- 在热浪与早产之间的联系中存在空间异质性.
- 诸如社会经济和住房特征等可改变的因素可以影响热浪对早产的影响,为缓解策略提供目标.
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