温度和湿度对棉花收成的联合影响,在气候变化下,棉花容易受到垂病的感染
Tianyi Zhang1, Bangyou Zheng2, Zongming Xie3,4
1State Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
Pest management science
|November 28, 2025
概括
气候变化加剧了棉花中的垂菌枯,增加了产量损失. 整合疾病控制和气候预测的适应策略对于弹性棉花生产至关重要.
科学领域:
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 植物病理学 植物病理学
- 气候科学 气候科学
背景情况:
- Verticillium dahliae对全球棉花生产构成重大,长期的威胁.
- 气候变化对棉花易受垂的影响尚不清楚.
- 中国的新疆是一个主要的棉花种植地区,面临着潜在的气候驱动疾病风险.
研究的目的:
- 量化气候对棉花脆弱性影响的气候影响,在中国新疆,棉花容易受到黄的侵蚀.
- 在不同的气候变化情景下,预测未来的垂枯风险.
- 为可持续棉花生产提供气候适应规划的信息.
主要方法:
- 对2011-2021年棉花产量损失数据的分析.
- 开发一个气候驱动模型来评估疾病的严重程度和脆弱性.
- 根据共享社会经济路径 (SSP1-2.6和SSP5-8.5) 场景,预测未来收益损失.
主要成果:
- 在没有控制措施的情况下,Verticillium枯每十年平均造成每年8.7%的棉花产量损失.
- 疾病严重程度的最佳条件包括25-28.5°C的温度和相对湿度>82%.
- 气候变化预测显示,到21世纪末,潜在的额外产量损失高达8.5% (SSP1-2.6) 和18.4% (SSP5-8.5).
结论:
- 预计气候变化将加剧垂,导致棉花产量损失更大.
- 迫切需要将疾病控制与气候适应战略相结合.
- 本研究提供了一个框架,通过了解作物-病原体-气候相互作用来开发弹性棉花生产系统.
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