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智能旅游的需求预测集成空间计量学和深度学习
1School of Culture and Tourism, Chongqing Business Vocational College, Chongqing, China. majianlin1130@163.com.
Scientific reports
|November 29, 2025
概括
这项研究引入了智能旅游需求预测的新框架,通过整合空间计量和深度学习 (LSTM). 该模型通过捕捉空间相关性显著提高了准确性,超过了传统方法.
科学领域:
- 智能旅游是一个智能旅游.
- 数据科学数据科学数据科学
- 空间计量经济学空间计量
背景情况:
- 传统的旅游需求预测方法与空间相关性和深度学习模型可解释性作斗争.
- 智能旅游场景需要增强动态感知和需求预测的准确性.
- 现有的模型往往无法充分捕捉旅游流动中复杂的空间依赖.
研究的目的:
- 提出一个新的预测框架,将空间计量经济学模型和智能旅游的深度学习整合在一起.
- 解决传统预测方法中发现的空间相关性建模和可解释性的局限性.
- 提高旅游需求预测的准确性和动态感知.
主要方法:
- 空间计量经济学模型与长短期记忆 (LSTM) 网络的集成.
- 利用空间滞后因素,聚合指标和区域互动特征来建立地理依赖结构.
- 利用旅游流,在线旅游行为和GPS轨迹数据进行模型培训和验证.
主要成果:
- 拟议的模型在CityBrain北京旅游流 (CB-BJTF) 数据集上取得了卓越的表现,MAE为9.653和R2为0.924.
- 在预测准确性方面显著超过了informant和ST-GCN等基准模型.
- 空间敏感性分析证实了空间信息的关键作用,当空间数据被排除在外时,MAE增加到12.284.
结论:
- 综合空间计量经济学和深度学习框架为智能旅游需求预测提供了强大的解决方案.
- 该模型有效地平衡了时间序列建模与空间结构识别,提高了预测准确性.
- 为空间感知建模和智能旅游应用中的深度融合预测提供理论和实证支持.
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