不均的时空流行型余震序列模型,包括地震触发的缓慢滑动事件
Isaías Bañales1, Tomoaki Nishikawa2, Yoshihiro Ito2
1Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Gokasho, Uji, 611-0011, Japan. isaias@ciencias.unam.mx.
Scientific reports
|November 29, 2025
概括
经常发生的地震可能是由慢滑事件 (SSEs) 引发的. 这项研究增强了地震模型,以显示SSE期间的背景地震性增加,改善了我们对地震机制的理解.
科学领域:
- 地质物理学 地质物理学
- 地震学 地震学
- 地球科学 地球科学 地球科学
背景情况:
- 了解定期地震和缓慢断层滑动之间的关系对于地震活动机制至关重要.
- 间板缓慢滑动事件 (SSEs) 被假设为触发背景地震活动.
研究的目的:
- 介绍时空流行型余震序列 (ETAS) 模型的扩展.
- 为了将背景地震性作为一个随时间推移的零碎常数函数.
- 使用GNSS数据识别SSE发生期,并分析背景地震性的变化.
主要方法:
- 使用全球导航卫星系统 (GNSS) 数据来识别SSE时期.
- 使用最大概率推理方法与预期-最大化 (EM) 算法进行模型推理.
- 推断余震的分支过程以估计地震谱系.
主要成果:
- 在SSE时期显示背景地震性增加.
- 成功地应用了增强的ETAS模型来分析来自墨西哥格雷罗州和日本博索半岛的地震数据.
- 通过余震分支过程推断提供了对地震家谱的见解.
结论:
- 在缓慢滑动事件中,背景地震性增加.
- 增强的ETAS模型提供了对地震活动的更全面的了解.
- 这项研究阐明了缓慢和快速地震之间的关系.
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