开发基于XGBoost和随机森林算法以及互联网搜索数据的COVID-19阳性测试的预测模型.
Yikun Chang1, Jinwei Chen1, Xiaoxuan Chen1
1Department of Medical Statistics, School of Public Health & Sun Yat-sen Global Health Institute & Center for Health Information Research, Sun Yat- sen University, Guangzhou, China.
BMC public health
|November 29, 2025
概括
互联网搜索数据,特别是百度搜索索引 (BSI),可以预测COVID-19 (冠状病毒疾病2019) 爆发. 使用滞后BSI的XGBoost模型显示了早期流行病监测和预警的强有力的预测性能.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 数据科学数据科学数据科学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 全球COVID-19策略已经正常化,但使用互联网搜索数据的预测模型对于未来的疫情控制至关重要.
- 早期流行病监测和预警系统对于管理传染病至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 利用互联网搜索数据进行COVID-19的早期流行病监测和警告.
- 使用百度搜索索引 (BSI) 开发和评估COVID-19的预测模型.
主要方法:
- 收集了相关关键字的每日COVID-19阳性测试和BSI数据.
- 使用时间滞后分析选了具有高相关性 (>0.9) 的关键词.
- 使用原始和滞后的BSI数据构建了XGBoost和随机森林 (RF) 模型.
- 开发了一个综合搜索索引 (CSI),按预测因素的重要性加权.
- 使用分布式滞后非线性模型 (DLNM) 评估了CSI和COVID-19病例之间的关系.
主要成果:
- 确定了20个关键词具有显著的相关性 (>0.9) 和1-10天的滞后.
- 在预测准确度方面,XGBoost模型的表现优于射频模型.
- 使用滞后BSI的XGBoost模型显示了改善的3天预测 (RMSE:803.85,MAPE:9.96%).
- CSI显示了与COVID-19病例的统计学上显著的关联,在各种滞后时相对风险增加.
结论:
- 结合滞后BSI的XGBoost模型对于预测COVID-19流行病是有效的.
- 这种数据驱动的方法增强了传染病爆发的传统监测系统.
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