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[对峰值碳状况和影响因素在峰值碳试点城市的分析]

Yong-Yu Wang¹, Yi-di Zhang¹

¹School of Statistics and Data Science, Lanzhou University of Finance and Economics, Lanzhou 730020, China.

Huan jing ke xue= Huanjing kexue

|November 29, 2025

概括

大多数中国城市还没有达到碳排放峰值. 影响排放的关键因素包括人均GDP和城市化率,具体城市预测突出了实现碳中和目标的各种时间表.

科学领域:

环境科学环境科学
城市规划城市规划
气候变化政策气候变化政策

背景情况:

城市对于实现中国的双碳目标 (碳峰值和碳中和) 是至关重要的.
中国城市的试点项目为国家减少碳排放战略提供了宝贵的见解.
了解城市一级的碳排放动态对于有效的气候行动至关重要.

研究的目的:

通过一种新的方法,评估25个中国试点城市的当前碳峰值状况.
确定推动这些城市碳排放的关键影响因素.
预测不同情景下的高排放城市未来的碳峰值时间表.

主要方法:

应用曼-肯达尔趋势测试来确定城市一级的碳峰值状态.
灰色相关性分析,以评估社会经济因素对碳排放的影响.
STIRPAT (对人口,富裕和技术的回归的随机影响) 模型用于碳排放预测.

主要成果:

在研究的25个试点城市 (2006-2022年) 中,有3个处于平台时期,22个尚未达到碳排放峰值.
人均GDP和城市化速度与碳排放的相关性较高,而二级工业比例和能源强度的相关性较低.
预计奥尔多斯市将在所有情景下到2030年达到其碳峰值; 预计在强化低碳情景下,尤林市将在2030年达到峰值.

结论:

大多数中国的碳峰值试点城市尚未达到碳排放峰值.
社会经济发展指标,如人均GDP和城市化,是城市碳排放的重要驱动因素.
为了让像奥尔多斯和尤林这样的城市在2030年之前实现其碳峰值目标,需要量身定制的,特定场景的战略.

关键词:

曼 - 肯达尔趋势测试这就是STIRPAT模型.碳峰值达到峰值的时间影响因素分析影响因素分析试点城市试点城市

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