[基于SSP-RCP情景的甘省土地利用和碳储存的动态演变和预测]
Xue-Hong Li1,2, Xin Jin1,2, Xue-Bin Zhang3
1College of Geographical Science, Qinghai Normal University, Xining 810016, China.
Huan jing ke xue= Huanjing kexue
|November 29, 2025
概括
本研究分析了在不同气候场景下甘省的土地利用和碳储存变化. 未来的预测表明碳储存增加,受土地利用转变的影响,对双碳战略至关重要.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候变化研究 气候变化研究
- 土地使用规划 土地使用规划
背景情况:
- "双碳"战略需要了解土地利用和碳储存动态.
- 在不断变化的气候情景下,优化区域土地利用和促进碳平衡至关重要.
- 甘省过去的土地使用变化显示森林,草原,水和建筑用地增加.
研究的目的:
- 预测甘省未来的土地使用和碳储存动态.
- 从2020年到2035年分析土地使用转让对不同气候情景 (SSP-RCP) 下碳储存的影响.
- 为区域碳平衡战略提供科学基础.
主要方法:
- 利用了来自合模型相互比较项目第六阶段 (CMIP6) 的共享社会经济路径-代表性度路径 (SSP-RCP) 场景.
- 采用土地使用场景和生态系统服务 (SD-PLUS-INVEST) 动态加集成估值模型进行分析.
- 量化评估过去 (2000-2020年) 和未来 (到2035年) 的土地利用和碳储存变化.
主要成果:
- 未来的情景预测水和建筑用地增加,导致耕地,草原和未使用的土地减少.
- 预计森林土地将在SSP126和SSP245情景下得到保护.
- 预计到2035年,碳储存将在所有情景中显著增加 (SSP126: 24.2%,SSP245: 24.04%,SSP585: 23.14%),空间差异显著.
- 从2020年到2035年的土地使用变化显示出多种影响:转换为林地增加了碳储存,而建筑用地扩张和森林/草原退化导致碳损失,特别是在SSP585.5下.
结论:
- 土地利用变化显著影响碳储存,在不同情景中产生不同的影响.
- 该研究提供了经过修订的碳密度估计和碳储存变化的定量分析.
- 结果为碳储存评估和双碳战略下的区域碳平衡倡议提供了方法论参考和科学支持.
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