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[空间时空模拟和驱动力分析的碳储存在海河流域基于LUCC变化]

Hong-Kui Yang^1,2,3, Ming-Zhu Kou^1,2, Wan-Qiang Qi^1,2

¹Xining Natural Resources Comprehensive Surver Center, China Geological Survey, Xining 810021, China.

Huan jing ke xue= Huanjing kexue

|November 29, 2025

概括

在海河流域的土地利用变化增加了从2000年到2020年的碳储存. 未来的情景预测碳储存的持续增长,由土地使用类型和降水量驱动.

科学领域:

环境科学环境科学
生态生态学生态生态学
遥感遥感遥感遥感

背景情况:

河流域是中国第二大内陆流域,面临土地利用变化影响碳储存.
了解这些动态对于区域规划和可持续发展至关重要.

研究的目的:

分析海河流域的土地使用特征和碳储存模式.
预测未来的土地使用和碳储存在各种发展情景下.
确定影响碳库存空间差异化的关键驱动因素.

主要方法:

利用了2000年,2010年和2020年的土地使用数据.
采用了PLUS-InvEST-Geodetector模型进行模拟和预测.
纳入了15个驱动因素,并分析了四种未来情景 (自然,城市,生态,耕地保护).

主要成果:

在2000年至2020年期间,耕地,森林和水体增加,而草原和未使用的土地减少.
碳储量增加了0.213×10^9,主要是由于未使用的土地转化为草原.
所有2030年情景都预计增加了碳储存,生态保护情景显示出最高的增长率 (4.42%).
土地使用类型,NDVI,降水和DEM被确定为主要驱动因素,土地使用类型和降水相互作用是最有影响力的 (q=0.99).

结论:

土地利用变化对海河流域的碳储存有很大影响.
未来的土地利用规划,特别是生态保护,可以加强碳捕获.
这些发现为优化土地结构和促进该地区可持续发展提供了关键数据.

关键词:

河河流盆地河河流盆地 PLUS-INVEST-地质探测器模型储存碳的碳储存方式土地使用类型土地使用类型对于2030年的多个场景.

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