机器学习组合概率方法用于在快速水位下降的情况下对水库斜坡的时间依赖性可靠性分析,使用贝叶斯模型平均 (BMA) 计算
Zehang Li1, Zhu Yang2,3, Long Teng2,3
1School of Civil Engineering, Architecture and Environment, Hubei University of Technology, 28 Nanli Road, Wuhan, 430068, People's Republic of China.
Scientific reports
|November 29, 2025
概括
这项研究引入了机器学习 (ML) 组合的概率方法,使用贝叶斯模型平均 (BMA) 来改进水库坡度稳定性分析. 该方法提高了故障概率估计,并为时间依赖的可靠性量化预测不确定性.
科学领域:
- 地质技术工程 地质技术工程
- 计算力学 计算力学 计算力学
- 机器学习应用 机器学习应用
背景情况:
- 概率式的水库坡度稳定性分析是计算密集的.
- 现有的机器学习 (ML) 模型提供点值预测,忽视模型的不确定性.
- 组装ML模型以提高准确性和不确定性量化仍然是一个挑战.
研究的目的:
- 提出 ML 组合的概率方法,用于取决于水库坡度的时间可靠性分析.
- 在斜率稳定性分析中解决计算低效率和不确定性量化问题.
- 评估集合模型与单个ML模型的性能.
主要方法:
- 利用支持矢量机 (SVM) 和基于反向传播的神经网络 (BPNN) 进行安全因子 (FS) 评估.
- 采用贝叶斯模型平均化 (BMA) 来组合单个ML模型预测.
- 将这些方法应用于三峡水库区域的实用斜坡,以进行时间依赖的可靠性分析.
主要成果:
- 与单个ML模型相比,整体替代模型在斜坡失败概率方面的预测性能优越.
- 集合模型有效地结合了不同ML算法的优势.
- 提出的方法提供了概率预测,使预测不确定性的合理量化.
结论:
- ML组合的概率方法,特别是使用BMA,提高了依赖时间的水库斜坡失效概率估计的准确性.
- 整体方法成功量化预测不确定性,提供更可靠的风险评估.
- 这种方法为水库坡度可靠性分析提供了更强大的框架.
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