物理导向的变压器网络用于可解释的气油相对透性在多孔介质的预测
1Department of Chemical and Petroleum Engineering, Sharif University of Technology (SUT), Tehran, Iran. maahmadi@sharif.edu.
Scientific reports
|November 29, 2025
概括
一个新的基于变压器的机器学习模型准确地预测了储库中的天然气和石油相对透率 (Krg,Krog). 这种数据驱动的方法提高了多相流量建模和水库模拟的准确性.
科学领域:
- 石油工程是石油工程中的一个.
- 机器学习应用 机器学习应用
- 储水池模拟器 储水池模拟器
背景情况:
- 准确预测天然气 (Krg) 和石油 (Krog) 的相对透性对于可靠的石油储多相流量建模至关重要.
- 现有的方法往往难以捕捉复杂的非线性相互作用和异质性.
- 数据驱动的方法提供了提高预测准确性的潜力.
研究的目的:
- 开发和比较用于预测天然气和石油相对透性的机器学习框架.
- 评估变压器网络与随机森林,XGBoost和线性回归的性能.
- 确保使用SHAP的预测具有物理意义和可解释性.
主要方法:
- 为培训和验证利用了1026个石化物理数据点.
- 采用了变压器网络,随机森林 (RF),极端梯度提升 (XGBoost) 和线性回归.
- 集成的SHAP (沙普利添加式解释) 为模型的可解释性.
主要成果:
- 变压器模型实现了最高的精度 (R2高达0.94),表现优于基线模型.
- 射频和XGBoost表现出竞争力的性能 (R2 ≥0.88),特别是在异质的阵容中.
- SHAP分析确定了气体和度 (Sg) 和剩余油和度 (Sorg) 作为关键预测因素,变压器有效地捕捉了复杂的水库现象.
结论:
- 基于变压器的框架为数据驱动的Kr估计建立了新的基准,提供了卓越的预测准确性和可解释性.
- 这种方法非常适合实地水库模拟和提高回收的不确定性量化.
- 这项研究强调了先进机器学习在理解和建模复杂的水库流体动力学方面的潜力.
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