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根据未来的气候变化情景,使用深度学习进行全球地下水储存的长期预测
Sumriti Ranjan Patra1, Hone-Jay Chu1, Tatas2
1Department of Geomatics, National Cheng Kung University, No.1, University Road, Tainan City, 701, Taiwan.
The Science of the total environment
|November 30, 2025
概括
气候变化对地下水储存 (GWS) 产生重大影响,气温上升导致地下水的减少,特别是在热带地区. 这就需要将气候引起的地下水变化纳入全球水资源规划.
科学领域:
- 环境科学环境科学
- 水文学的水文学
- 气候科学是气候科学.
背景情况:
- 加快气候变化需要了解其对地下水动态的影响,以实现可持续的水资源管理.
- 全球地下水储存 (GWS) 是面临越来越大的压力的一个关键资源.
研究的目的:
- 使用气候诱导的AI模型,在未来的气候场景下,在2100年之前预测GRACE衍生的地下水储存 (GWS) 的全球变化.
- 识别影响全球气候变化的关键气候驱动因素及其空间分布.
主要方法:
- 开发和应用气候诱导的人工智能模型,利用CMIP6 SSP进行预测.
- 在NRMSE低于0.1和IOA超过0.9.的情况下,AI模型的验证.
- 特性灵敏度分析,以确定气候变量 (例如最高温度,降水) 对GWS的影响.
主要成果:
- 最大温度 (Tmax) 成为GWS变化的主要驱动因素,其次是降水和最低温度.
- 预测表明,热带和温带地区的GWS显著下降,特别是Tmax增加超过3°C.
- 到2100年,超过一半的全球人口可能居住在GWS下降的地区,像奥加拉拉这样的主要含水层可能会损失高达40%的水.
结论:
- 气候变化,特别是气温上升,在全球范围内加剧了地下水压力,影响了水的可用性.
- 研究结果强调,迫切需要将气候诱导的地下水动态纳入未来的全球水资源规划.
- 脆弱地区,包括人口密集和依赖农业的地区,需要有针对性的适应战略.
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