城市道路网络的崩分析:半参数空间负二项式模型,具有单调约束
Miaojie Xia1, Li Guan1, Jiang Du1
1School of Mathematics, Statistics and Mechanics, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, 100124, China.
Accident; analysis and prevention
|November 30, 2025
概括
本研究引入了一种灵活的半参数空间计数模型,以改进道路事故频率分析. 新模型通过考虑空间依赖和复杂的暴露变量来提高准确性,帮助安全干预.
科学领域:
- 运输工程 运输工程
- 空间统计的空间统计.
- 计量经济学 计量经济学
背景情况:
- 空间异质性在碰撞频率建模中至关重要.
- 现有的模型在暴露变量的灵活性和计算效率方面存在局限性.
- 解决这些局限性是推动道路安全分析的关键.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个半参数空间计数模型,具有灵活的曝光规格和高效的贝叶斯估计.
- 为了克服当前在碰撞建模中的空间方法的局限性.
- 为了解和减轻道路交通事故风险提供更准确的框架.
主要方法:
- 开发了一种半参数空间计数模型,包含灵活的曝光规格和空间依赖性.
- 采用数据增强的吉布斯采样来计算高效的贝叶斯估计,使用并联形式.
- 通过对休斯顿和达拉斯的城市道路网络进行模拟和经验评估来验证该模型.
主要成果:
- 拟议的模型显示了相对于传统方法的显著性能优势.
- 分析揭示了年度平均每日交通 (AADT) 和事故发生频率之间的复杂,细分差异关系,与城市特定的模式.
- 道路设计要素 (车道数量,宽度,中位设计) 和空间异质性被确定为重大撞车风险因素.
结论:
- 半参数空间计数模型为道路安全分析提供了更灵活,更高效的计算方法.
- 了解空间异质性和复杂的暴露风险关系对于有效的交通安全干预至关重要.
- 该框架使运输机构能够通过精确量化碰撞风险因素来优先考虑安全改进.
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