相关实验视频
Updated: Jan 9, 2026

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Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework
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使用全球天气预报和水力动力学建模预测洪水风险预测的综合框架:克里什纳河流域案例研究的评估,印度
Ankan Chakraborty1, Kaustav Mondal2, Mousumi Ghosh3
1Centre for Climate Studies, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai, 400076, India.
Journal of environmental management
|November 30, 2025
概括
这项研究为印度引入了一个新的洪水风险预测框架.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 水文学的水文学
- 灾害管理 灾害管理
背景情况:
- 洪水风险预测对于灾害管理至关重要,但印度缺乏河流流域规模的研究.
- 现有的方法往往不强调以响应为导向的洪水减缓计划.
研究的目的:
- 开发和展示一个新的,可扩展的洪水风险预测框架,以优先考虑应对.
- 整合全球降雨预测,水力动力学建模和社会经济脆弱性评估.
主要方法:
- 利用全球整体预报系统 (GEFS) 的降水数据和MIKE 21水力学模型进行洪水映射.
- 引入了关键响应时间 (CRT) 度量来量化危险的紧迫性.
- 使用人口普查数据评估社会经济脆弱性 (SEV),并创建了两种风险地图.
主要成果:
- 在克里什纳河东流域 (KRB) 确定了高复合洪水风险,在西部确定了风险驱动的风险.
- 利用最近的洪水事件验证了框架对预期规划的有效性.
- 生成空间显式洪水风险地图,突出显示不同的风险区.
结论:
- 拟议的框架为早期预警和响应优先设定提供了一个可通用和透明的工具.
- 它支持在面临水气候风险的河流盆地进行积极的环境管理.
- 这种方法有助于明智地分配用于减缓洪水的资源.
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