环境流行病学中断时间序列分析:对传统和新型建模方法的审查
Yiqun Ma1, Tarik Benmarhnia2,3
1Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, 9500 Gilman Drive, La Jolla, CA, 92093, USA.
Current environmental health reports
|December 1, 2025
概括
本研究介绍了先进的中断时间序列 (ITS) 方法,包括机器学习和贝叶斯方法,用于环境健康研究. 这些灵活的模型准确地估计了野火烟雾等事件对健康的影响,有助于公共卫生政策.
科学领域:
- 环境流行病学环境流行病学
- 公共卫生研究 公共卫生研究
- 统计建模 统计建模
背景情况:
- 间断时间序列 (ITS) 设计对于评估环境健康影响至关重要.
- 传统的ITS方法可能会与复杂的时间模式和异质效应作斗争.
研究的目的:
- 引入传统和当代的中断时间序列 (ITS) 方法.
- 增强复杂的时间模式和空间异质效应的建模.
- 用现实世界的案例研究提供ITS方法的比较分析.
主要方法:
- 对ARIMA,机器学习模型和贝叶斯式ITS进行比较分析.
- 在2018年旧金山野火烟雾事件期间估计过度呼吸道住院的应用.
- 利用注释数据集和R脚本来实现可复制性.
主要成果:
- 在环境流行病学中证明了先进的ITS方法的实际应用.
- 为选择和实施ITS设计提供了一份指南.
- 成功估计了与野火烟雾暴露有关的过度呼吸道住院病例.
结论:
- 先进的ITS方法,包括机器学习和贝叶斯框架,为复杂的环境健康分析提供了更大的灵活性.
- 提出的框架广泛适用于超出急性环境暴露的公共卫生干预措施.
- 这项工作推进了ITS方法论,并为现实环境中的因果推理提供了可操作的指导.
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