中国和七国集团国家之间的经济政策不确定性的量子时间频率连接
Jizhi Zhao1, Guangfu Chen2, Ying Song1
1School of Business, Wuyi University, Wuyishan, Fujian, China.
PloS one
|December 1, 2025
概括
本研究引入了一种新的量子时间频率连接模型,用于经济政策不确定性 (EPU). 它揭示了美国作为一个净冲击发射器,中国作为一个净接收器,并强调了在极端条件下改善的连接.
科学领域:
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 计量经济学 计量经济学 计量经济学
- 金融市场 金融市场
背景情况:
- 现有的关于经济政策不确定性 (EPU) 的研究往往忽视了量子和频域分析.
- 对冲击传递的全面理解需要考虑不同的不确定性水平和时间尺度.
研究的目的:
- 开发和应用一种新的量子时间频率连接模型来分析EPU.
- 研究EPU之间的动态联系和冲击传输在不同的量子和频率之间.
- 为了比较美国,中国和G7国家之间的冲击传播模式.
主要方法:
- 估计量子向量自回归模型 (QVAR ((p)) 和转换为量子向量移动平均线 (QVMA) 表示.
- 用于时间域连接度指标的概括预测误差差分解 (GFEVD) 的计算.
- 频域连接度指标和时间和频域连接分析的光谱分解的应用.
主要成果:
- 美国的EPU充当了冲击的净发射器,而中国的EPU充当了短期和长期的净接收器.
- 总连接指数 (TCI) 呈现出显著的异质性,短期因素主导了其动态.
- 经济政策的不确定性连接性在极端经济条件下大大改善.
结论:
- 拟议的量子时间频率模型提供了比传统方法更细致的了解EPU连接.
- 经验发现强调了美国和中国在全球经济政策冲击传播中的不同角色.
- 极端条件下的高度连接表明危机期间的脆弱性和相互连接性增加.
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