建模酒精消费模式,使政策影响评估成为可能
Jasper Ten Dam1,2, A Jeroen Rodenburg1, Hendrik Koffijberg2
1Department of Statistics Data Science and Modelling, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, The Netherlands.
一个新的模型使用荷兰数据准确地预测了酒精消费模式,包括过度和重度的插曲性饮酒. 该工具有助于评估旨在减少与酒精有关的危害的公共卫生政策.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 酒精消费对公众健康构成重大风险,需要采取有效的政策来制过度和重度偶尔饮酒.
- 评估这些政策的影响需要准确预测未来的饮酒行为.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证一个用于预测酒精消费模式的统计模型.
- 该模型旨在预测过度和重度插曲性饮酒的流行情况.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个三个阶段的模型:预测任何酒精消费,通过负二项式分布估计每周的消费,并预测大量的插曲性饮酒.
- 使用荷兰调查数据 (2008-2022) 估计了模型参数,包括年龄,性别,教育和时间趋势.
- 模型性能通过将预测与观察数据 (2014-2022) 进行比较来验证.
主要成果:
- 校准模型准确预测了2014-2022年间的过度饮酒 (误差<0.2pp) 和重度插曲性饮酒 (误差<0.1pp) 的流行情况.
- 质量图和样本内验证证实了该模型适合预测这些饮酒模式.
结论:
- 为预测荷兰的酒精消费模式而开发了一个强大的模型.
- 该模型是评估针对过度和重度插曲性饮酒的干预措施有效性的宝贵工具.
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