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全球COVID-19发病率和死亡率估计:一个队列研究和数学模型分析分析
Houssein H Ayoub1, Hiam Chemaitelly2,3, Laith J Abu-Raddad2,3,4,5
1Mathematics Program, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, College of Arts and Sciences, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar.
Influenza and other respiratory viruses
|December 1, 2025
概括
据估计,COVID-19流行病在全球造成了大约619万例严重或致命的病例. 大多数严重的结局发生在Omicron变种之前,突出显示了未来流行病准备的必要性.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 传染病建模 传染病建模
背景情况:
- COVID-19大流行对严重程度和死亡率的全球影响仍然不完全理解.
- 准确估计疾病负担对于公共卫生应对和未来的准备至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为了估计严重,危急和致命的COVID-19的全球疾病负担.
- 分析特定年龄的发病率和COVID-19严重程度和死亡率的区域差异.
主要方法:
- 卡塔尔人口的队列研究追踪了COVID-19的严重程度和死亡率,从大流行开始到2024年3月.
- 世界卫生组织的标准被用于严重,危急和致命病例的分类.
- 一个数学模型推断了卡塔尔的数据,以生成全球和区域估计.
主要成果:
- 严重,危急或致命的COVID-19的发病率为每1000人年1.13人.
- 据估计,全球发生了6190万例严重,危急或致命的COVID-19病例.
- 仅致命的COVID-19就占据了估计的1130万例病例,区域差异很大,并且集中在Omicron前阶段.
结论:
- COVID-19 流行病对全球的发病率和死亡率产生了重大影响.
- 调查结果强调了强大的公共卫生基础设施和为未来的流行病威胁做好准备的重要性.
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