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对C型肝炎病毒流行病的随机延迟差异模型的模拟和最佳控制
Nikhil Kumar1, Mohammad Sajid2, T S Chauhan1
1Department of Mathematics, Bareilly College affiliated to M.J.P. Rohilkhand University, 243005, Bareilly, India.
Scientific reports
|December 1, 2025
概括
这项研究使用随机延迟微分方程模拟C型肝炎病毒 (HCV) 传播,揭示了疾病管理的最佳控制策略. 研究结果提供了通过疫苗接种和治疗等干预措施来减少HCV患病率的见解.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 数学生物学 数学生物学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 由于复杂的传播和长期影响,C型肝炎病毒 (HCV) 构成了全球重大健康挑战.
- 要了解HCV的动态,需要考虑生物延迟和环境变异性的模型.
研究的目的:
- 开发和分析HCV传播的随机延迟差异模型.
- 调查时间延迟和随机效应对HCV动态的影响.
- 确定HCV管理和潜在根除的最佳控制策略.
主要方法:
- 制定一个随机延迟差异模型,包括易感,感染 (急性和慢性) 和恢复的部分.
- 应用随机的利亚普诺夫功能技术来确定溶液的存在,并推导疾病灭绝或持续的条件.
- 利用Pontryagin的最大原则 (PMP) 来获得最佳的控制策略,以尽量减少感染和干预成本.
主要成果:
- 确立了一个独特的全球解决方案的存在以及疾病灭绝,持久性和静止分布的条件.
- 确定了包括疫苗接种,治疗和公共卫生教育在内的最佳控制策略.
- 证明时间延迟和随机变量对HCV传播动态的显著影响.
结论:
- 该研究为了解在随机影响和时间延迟下HCV传播提供了全面的框架.
- 从中得出的最佳控制策略可以有效地管理HCV流行病并减少疾病负担.
- 该模型为公共卫生政策和针对HCV根除的干预计划提供了宝贵的见解.
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