系统建模和减少美国联邦政府劳动力的政策影响
1Thomas Jefferson High School, Alexandria, VA, USA.
概括
政府劳动力削减对航空航天和科技等行业产生重大影响,造成经济破坏. 隐藏的成本往往超过了储蓄,需要适应性规划,以实现机构的弹性.
科学领域:
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 系统分析 系统分析
- 公共政策 公共政策
背景情况:
- 减少劳动力,以政府效率倡议为例,创造了复杂的经济和功能影响,超出了直接的失业.
- 了解这些影响对于有效的公共管理和经济稳定至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析政府削减劳动力的系统经济影响.
- 评估因人员裁员而导致相互关联的各个部门机构职能受到侵蚀.
主要方法:
- 利用基于系统的建模方法,将传统的输入-输出 (IO) 分析与不可操作性输入-输出模型 (IIM) 整合在一起.
- 应用了IIM框架来捕捉功能退化,提供了具体部门影响的详细细分.
主要成果:
- 联邦工作人员的裁员显著影响到政府依赖的行业,如航空航天,运输和高科技服务.
- 干扰通过供应网络和区域经济传播,导致延误,取消和减少运营能力.
- 确定了诸如生产率下降和合同终止等隐性成本,这些成本往往抵消了预计的节省.
结论:
- 忽视系统相互依存的成本削减措施的有效性有限.
- 政策必须平衡财政目标与维持机构性.
- 适应性,风险意识的员工计划对于在组织变革期间维护服务至关重要.
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