一个分区流行病模型与年龄分层,用于保险费计算
Shirali Kadyrov1,2, Gauhar Kayumova1, Asilbek Yallaboyev1
1New Uzbekistan University, Tashkent 100000, Uzbekistan.
Mathematical biosciences and engineering : MBE
|December 2, 2025
概括
本研究介绍了一种数学模型,用于在流行病期间计算保险费,考虑年龄和疾病阶段. 它表明,年龄和感染细节显著影响定价,特别是在老年人身上.
科学领域:
- 数学建模的数学建模
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 精算科学是一种精算科学.
背景情况:
- 保险费计算传统上不考虑流行病驱动的死亡率和发病率.
- 流行病事件给保险行业带来了显著的波动和风险.
- 现有的模型缺乏细节性,以捕捉流行病期间特定于年龄和疾病阶段的特定风险.
研究的目的:
- 开发一种数学框架,用于在流行病条件下计算生命和健康保险费.
- 将年龄结构化的人口动态和疾病组合纳入保险费计算.
- 为基于流行病进展的动态保费调整提供一个工具.
主要方法:
- 开发一个分区流行病模型,包括三个年龄组和四个状态 (易受感染,感染,康复,死亡).
- 精算原理与流行病过渡概率的整合.
- 通过数值模拟验证的明确保费公式的推导.
主要成果:
- 年龄分层和详细的感染阶段显著影响保险保费定价.
- 高龄人口有较高的死亡风险经历特别明显的保险费调整.
- 恢复率和死亡率被确定为保险费变化的关键驱动因素.
结论:
- 拟议的框架为保险公司提供了一种可靠的方法来评估流行病风险.
- 基于流行病状况的动态保费调整可以帮助确保保险公司的偿付能力.
- 该模型有助于保持保险可负担性,同时管理更高的流行病风险.
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