环境变化和鱼类库存动态:马希马希丰度的随机模型
Erika Johanna Martínez-Salinas1, Andrés Ríos-Gutiérrez1,2, Viswanathan Arunachalam1
1Department of Statistics, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Sede Bogotá, Colombia.
Mathematical biosciences and engineering : MBE
|December 2, 2025
概括
这项研究使用随机微分方程建模了海面温度和Mahi Mahi (Coryphaena hippurus) 鱼类库存动态. 这些发现揭示了气候如何影响哥伦比亚太平洋的鱼类丰富性.
科学领域:
- 海洋生态海洋生态学
- 渔业 科学 渔业 科学
- 气候变化影响 气候变化影响
背景情况:
- 海洋生态系统对气候因素敏感,影响鱼类种群.
- 了解海面温度 (SST) 动态对于渔业管理至关重要.
- 马希马希 (Coryphaena hippurus) 是一个在哥伦比亚太平洋经济上重要的物种.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个随机建模框架来分析SST时间动态.
- 为了调查SST和Mahi Mahi丰度之间的关系.
- 评估模型对生态动态的适用性和稳定性.
主要方法:
- 随机微分方程 (SDEs) 用于建模.
- 用于参数估计的最大概率估计 (SST,鱼类种群,每单位渔获量).
- 欧勒-马鲁雅马数值方案实现了模型参数化.
主要成果:
- 模型参数估计用于2000-2012年期间.
- 数字模拟和交叉验证证实了模型的适用性.
- 灵敏度分析表明,该模型在捕捉生态动态方面具有稳健性.
结论:
- 随机建模框架有效地捕捉了SST和Mahi Mahi丰度的时间动态.
- 这项研究提供了关于气候对鱼类种群的影响的见解.
- 该模型是海洋生态系统和渔业研究的宝贵工具.
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