根据中国人民共和国各种时间尺度的干旱特征预测未来森林火灾发生的概率
Xianzhuang Shao1,2, Chunlin Li1, Yu Chang1
1Key Laboratory of Forest Ecology and Silviculture, Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenyang, P. R. China.
PloS one
|December 2, 2025
概括
未来的气候变化将增加由于干旱导致的中国北部森林火灾风险,而中国南部的森林火灾风险可能会减少. 了解干旱影响是有效森林火灾管理的关键.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 林业林业 林业 林业 林业
背景情况:
- 气候变化加剧了极端天气,特别是干旱,影响了森林火灾制度.
- 关于未来干旱特征如何影响中国森林火灾发生的研究有限.
研究的目的:
- 研究未来干旱特征对中国森林火灾管理制度的影响.
- 在各种气候变化场景下开发森林火灾发生的预测模型.
主要方法:
- 主要组件分析 (PCA) 用于干旱特征的维度缩小.
- 地理加权后勤回归 (GWLR) 用于预测模型开发.
- 适用于未来的气候模拟和与历史数据 (2000-2019年) 的比较.
主要成果:
- 预测模型表现良好 (AUC>0.75),SPEI-1和SPEI-12时间表显示出优越的预测能力.
- 预计近期和中期,中国北部大部分森林土地 (NWC,NC,NEC),特别是中国东北部的森林火灾概率将增加.
- 相反,中国南部的森林土地 (SC,SWC,EC) 预计将出现森林火灾概率下降的趋势.
结论:
- 气候变化引起的干旱将大大改变中国各地森林火灾的概率.
- 干旱特征,特别是在SPEI-1和SPEI-12时间表上,是森林火灾发生的关键预测因素.
- 这些发现为局部森林火灾管理策略提供了科学基础,以减轻干旱影响.
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