一个临床实用的诺莫图谱,用于预测膀尿癌的老年患者 (≥65岁) 的存活率:基于SEER数据库和外部验证的研究
Jufang Wei1,2, Chunmeng Wei3,4, Juan Chen5
1Xiangsihu Community Health Service Center, Xiangsihu Community Health Service Center, Minzu Hospital of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, Nanning, China.
Cancer reports (Hoboken, N.J.)
|December 2, 2025
概括
一个新的诺米图准确地预测了老年膀泌尿腺癌 (UCB) 患者的整体存活率 (OS). 该工具有助于识别高风险患者进行密集治疗和低风险患者,以避免过度治疗.
科学领域:
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 老年医学 老年医学
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 膀泌尿腺癌 (UCB) 是老年人群的重大健康问题.
- 目前对老年UCB患者的预后工具有限,需要改进预测模型.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证用于预测UCB.诊断的老年患者 (≥65岁) 的整体存活率 (OS) 的名录.
- 在这个人口群体中提供个性化治疗和预后评估的可靠工具.
主要方法:
- 利用来自监测,流行病学和最终结果 (SEER) 数据库的12,702名UCB患者 (2004-2015) 的数据进行培训和内部验证.
- 包括来自明祖医院 (2012-2022) 的55名患者的外部验证队列.
- 采用单变量和多变量考克斯回归,C指数,校准图,ROC曲线和决策曲线分析 (DCA) 用于名ogram开发和验证.
主要成果:
- 确定了年龄,种族,婚姻,AJCC阶段,瘤大小,手术,放射治疗和化疗作为OS的独立预后因素.
- 诺米图表显示出强大的预测性能,C指数值为0.673 (训练),0.672 (内部验证) 和0.826 (外部验证).
- 校准图片证实了预测和实际生存率之间的高度一致性;ROC和DCA表明了优越的临床适用性.
结论:
- 使用SEER和中国数据,开发了一种可靠的诺姆图来预测老年UCB患者的1年,3年和5年的生存状况.
- 纳米图有效地将患者分为高风险和低风险组,促进个性化治疗策略.
- 这种工具有助于临床医生通过指导高风险患者的密集治疗或密切跟踪来优化护理,并防止低风险患者过度治疗.
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