传染病的最佳预防和控制策略:基于经济损失的修改动态模型的成本效益分析
Wenjun Liu1, Guohua Zou1, Qin Bao2,3
1School of Mathematical Sciences, Capital Normal University, Beijing, 100048, China.
Infectious Disease Modelling
|December 3, 2025
概括
政府针对传染病的干预措施有效地将高峰感染率降低了90%,高峰时间缩短了60%. 这种动态模型平衡了公共卫生和经济成本,以实现最佳的控制策略.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 卫生经济学 卫生经济学
背景情况:
- 大规模的传染病疫情对公共卫生构成重大风险.
- 干预措施可能会阻碍经济活动,需要成本效益平衡.
研究的目的:
- 为传染病制定最佳的干预策略.
- 提出一个包含疾病控制经济成本的动态模型.
主要方法:
- 修改后的SEIR模型扩展到QSEAIRD,纳入中国的COVID-19实践.
- 通过预测误差最小化进行参数估计.
- 为经济成本量化而引入的GDP损失系数.
- 为最佳预防政策计算而开发的算法.
主要成果:
- 政府的干预措施使感染高峰的时间缩短了60%,并减少了90%的程度.
- 在没有干预的情况下,上海的模拟预测了大量的感染波.
- 更宽松的措施将延长疫情控制,增加经济损失.
结论:
- 拟议的模型和算法有效地平衡了流行病控制和经济影响.
- 成本效益分析支持灵活的应用,以优化疾病预防策略.
- 证明了对新型传染病的反应能力的提高.
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