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从鸟类病毒病到鸟类监测:在乌苏图病毒感染的多尺度载体传播模型中识别能力

Necibe Tuncer¹, Yuganthi R Liyanage², Quiyana M Murphy³

¹Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Florida Atlantic University, 777 Glades Road, Boca Raton, FL 33431, USA.

bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology

|December 3, 2025

概括

这项研究开发了一种多尺度的乌苏图病毒模型,将鸟类和蚊子感染动态联系起来. 集成微观和宏观数据改善了模型可靠性,用于预测树冠病毒爆发.

科学领域:

媒介性疾病生态学媒介性疾病生态学
流行病学流行病学
数学建模的数学建模

背景情况:

乌苏图病毒是一种新兴的蚊子传播的黄病毒,具有野生鸟蚊循环和人类溢出风险.
了解跨生物尺度的传播对于预测乌苏图病毒爆发和加强监测至关重要.

研究的目的:

开发一个多尺度的载体传播模型,整合鸟类宿主病毒动力学和种群层面的传播动力学.
评估数据集成对模型参数识别性和稳定性的影响.

主要方法:

开发了一种多尺度模型,将鸟类病毒动力学,蚊子感染概率和蚊子-鸟类传播联系起来.
使用实验室和野生鸟类监测数据验证的模型参数.
进行结构和实际可识别性分析以评估参数稳定性.

主要成果:

同时对集成数据集进行多级拟合,显著提高了参数识别性和稳定性.
结合微尺度 (主机内部) 和宏观 (人口) 数据可以提高预测可靠性.
证明了多尺度建模对于新兴树病毒的实用性.

结论:

多尺度建模框架对于准确预测载体传播疾病动态至关重要.
整合不同的数据类型可以加强流行病学模型的可靠性.
这种方法提高了我们对乌苏图病毒传播和树状病毒监测策略的理解.

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Viral Recombination

Viral Recombination

Cells are sometimes infected by more than one virus at once. When two viruses disassemble to expose their genomes for replication in the same cell, similar regions of their genomes can pair together and exchange sequences in a process called recombination. Alternatively, viruses with segmented genomes can swap segments in a process called reassortment.