预测Corylus heterophylla在未来气候变化下在中国的潜在分布,使用优化的MaxEnt模型进行预测
Jingyu Wang1,2, Wang Xing1,3, Pengfei Sun4
1National Beet Medium-Term Gene Bank, Heilongjiang University, Harbin, China.
Frontiers in plant science
|December 3, 2025
概括
气候变化影响科里卢斯 (Corylus heterophylla) 的分布. 合适的息地将向北移动,一些地区扩大,另一些地区收缩,需要保护战略.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 生物地理学是生物地理学.
- 保护生物学 保护生物学
背景情况:
- 原产于东亚的Corylus heterophylla,由于气候变化而面临息地转移.
- 了解其分布对于生殖质保护和可持续使用至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 模拟和分析Corylus heterophylla可能适合的息地.
- 根据当前和未来的气候场景,确定其分布的关键环境决定因素.
主要方法:
- 使用了优化的MaxEnt模型,将物种发生记录与环境变量集成在一起.
- 在各种气候场景下进行了物种分布建模.
主要成果:
- 该模型实现了高预测精度 (AUC = 0.933),降水和温度是主要因素.
- 适合C. heterophylla的息地占中国的21.96%,预计将向北移动,并扩大高适合性区域.
- 预计分布将向南收缩,并向更高度转移.
结论:
- 这些发现为在气候变化下保护Corylus heterophylla提供了科学基础.
- 为了有效的保护和利用策略,必须考虑息地的适宜性和分布变化.
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