在高风险人群中进行暴露前疫苗接种对于控制加拿大的mopox复苏至关重要
Andrew Omame1,2, Sarafa A Iyaniwura3, Adeniyi Ebenezer4,5,6
1Disease-Informed Modelling, Methods, and Systems (DIMMS) Lab, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, ON, Canada.
BMC infectious diseases
|December 3, 2025
概括
对高风险群体进行暴露前疫苗接种对于控制加拿大的mopox复发至关重要. 加强这一战略可以避免潜在的疫情爆发,并防止mopox成为流行病.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 数学建模的数学建模
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 马博克斯疫情需要全球疫苗接种策略.
- 数学模型对于优化疫苗接种工作至关重要.
- 加拿大需要量身定制的战略来控制mopox的复苏.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个数学模型来评估加拿大的mopox疫苗接种策略.
- 调查暴露前和暴露后接种疫苗对mopox控制的影响.
- 评估mopox在加拿大成为本土病的可能性.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个分隔式数学模型,将个人分为高风险和低风险组.
- 该模型包括高风险组的暴露前疫苗接种和所有组的暴露后疫苗接种.
- 模型参数使用加拿大的mopox病例数据 (2022年4月至10月和2024年) 进行校准.
主要成果:
- 在高危人群中进行暴露前疫苗接种显著降低了mopox复发风险.
- 暴露后接种疫苗对控制疫情的影响最小.
- 该模型预测,如果没有针对性的暴露前疫苗接种,mopox可能会在加拿大流行.
结论:
- 对高风险人群的暴露前疫苗接种对于加拿大的mopox疫情控制至关重要.
- 强化暴露前疫苗接种可以有效地防止mopox复发.
- 数学建模为公共卫生疫苗接种策略提供了关键的见解.
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